California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This is because constitutional spending requirements under Proposition  98 (1988) and Proposition  2 (2014) almost entirely offset revenue gains. Moreover, we estimate costs in other programs to be about $6  billion higher than anticipated.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Under two voter initiatives, the State Constitution requires the state to set aside a share of revenues for schools and community colleges (Proposition  98, 1988) and debt payments and reserve deposits (Proposition  2, 2014).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - The  largest component is a $1.5  billion upward revision to the entering fund balance, primarily driven by higher ‑than ‑expected reversions of unspent funds and lower required Proposition  2 (2014) debt payments.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - By 2014, actuaries projected Ca lSTRS ’ assets would be depleted within a few decades. The Legislature passed Chapter  46 of 2014 (A B  1469 , Bonta), establishing a funding plan with the aim of reversing that projection and fully eliminating the Defined Benefit Program ’s unfunded liabilities by 2046.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals The Governor ’s Proposition  2 Proposals Introduction Passed by voters in 2014, Proposition  2 changed budgeting practices concerning: (1)  reserves and (2)  debt payments.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - These formulas include spending on schools and community colleges (under Proposition  98 [1988]), as well as debt payments and reserve deposits (under the rules of Proposition  2  [2014]). If the Legislature adopts the administration ’s revenue estimates —and does not solve the additional budget problem we identify above —we anticipate there will be a revenue shortfall in 2023 ‑24.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - As Figure  2 shows, the state ’s general ‑purpose reserves increased steadily after 2014 ‑15, when Proposition  2 was passed by voters. In  2019 ‑20, the state made its first withdrawal from the BSA  under the rules of Proposition  2 and the balance declined substantially.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4598