California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Suspension Proposal

Jan 29, 2021 - The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Suspension Proposal The Governor ’s Suspension Proposal Background The 2019 ‑20 Budget Made Several Programs ’ Costs or Augmentations Subject to Suspension. In the 2019 ‑20 May Revision, the administration anticipated an operating deficit would emerge —absent further actions —under its multiyear projections.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4328

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - Across the budget window, the state would need to make required BSA deposits of $7.6  billion, which has three components: $1  Billion True Up for 2019 ‑20. Under the administration ’s revenue estimates, the state would need to make a true up deposit of $1  billion in 2019 ‑20.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

A Framework for Allocating Federal Recovery Funds [Publication Details]

May 4, 2021 - Estimated at approximately $26 billion, the recovery funds should go a long way toward covering the state’s direct and indirect costs arising from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Moreover, beyond a relatively broad set of pandemic-related parameters, the ARP likely provides states with considerable flexibility over how to allocate the funds, presenting the Legislature with a unique opportunity.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4422

The 2021-22 Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 23, 2021 - To be eligible, a firm ’s gross receipts must have dropped by at least 20  percent from 2019 to 2020. Firms that file taxes on a fiscal year basis must have incurred a decline of 20  percent or more in 2018 ‑19 as compared to either (1)  2019 ‑20 or (2)  the average of 2019 ‑20 and 2020 ‑21.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4452

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - CDPH = California Department of Public Health; COVID ‑19 = coronavirus disease 2019; CHHS = California Health and Human Services Agency; HHS = Health and Human Services; GARE = Government Alliance on Race and Equity; EMSA = Emergency Medical Services Authority; CalAIM = California Advancing and Innovating Medi ‑Cal; ICF ‑DDs = Intermediate Care Facilities for the Developmentally
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432/2

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - ADRC = Aging and Disability Resources Centers; Cal ‑OAR = CalWORKs Outcomes and Accountability Review; IT = information technology; FFPSA = Federal Family First Prevention Services Act; DCSD = Department of Community Services and Development; DDS = Department of Developmental Services; DOR = Department of Rehabilitation; DSS = Department of Social Services; HDAP=Housing and Disability Advocacy
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432/5

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Aug 30, 2021 - While, under these estimates, appropriations subject to the limit do exceed the limit across 2019 ‑20 and 2020 ‑21, under the administration ’s interpretation of the SAL, excess revenues do not occur until the first year of “negative room ” and the immediately proceeding fiscal year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4449