California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - Specifically, our forecast is about $24 billion below the Governor’s budget across 2022‑23 to 2024‑25. All else equal, this means the budget problem is likely to be higher at the time of the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - We estimate the proposed budget includes about $3 billion in reversions. School and Community College Spending $15   Billion in Lower Spending on Schools and Community Colleges. The California Constitution sets a minimum annual funding requirement for schools and community colleges (otherwise known as Proposition  98 [1988]).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - Using one ‑time funds to cover ongoing costs creates a deficit in the Proposition  98 budget the following year. Funds School Facilities Grants. The 2022 ‑23 budget package provided $1.3   billion one ‑time non ‑Proposition   98 General Fund to cover the state share for new construction and modernization projects under the School Facility Program (SFP).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Appendix 4: Large One-Time and Temporary Augmentations Transportation Appendix 4, Figure 1 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Business and Labor General Fund (In millions) Begin new information
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - This difference mainly relates to our treatment of changes in the minimum spending requirement established by Proposition  98 (1988). Compared with the estimates from June 2023, the minimum requirement has decreased significantly in 2022-23 and 2023-24.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - (Figure 3 does not display an estimate for total reserves in 2022 ‑23 because this level largely will be determined by discretionary choices made by the Legislature. Total reserves include the Safety Net Reserve and the enacted balance of the SFEU.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472