California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - As such, the Governor ’s approach to the May Revision reflects the reality of the budget challenge before the Legislature. While the Governor focuses solutions in Medi-Cal —constituting $11  billion of the total $16  billion in solutions —the Legislature could pursue a different mix of spending and/or revenue solutions than those proposed.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - However, none of these, even all together, would indefinitely forestall the long ‑term reality of the state ’s constitutional constraints. The reality is that state tax revenues are growing faster than the limit and the size of state government has reached the limit set by voters in the 1970s.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

Nov 16, 2022 - Given current elevated levels of inflation, we suggest the Legislature consider whether the current automatic program spending adjustments target additional resources to areas of legislative priori ty.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4647

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2022 - On January 10, 2022, Governor Newsom presented his proposed state budget to the Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the proposed budget based on our initial review. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release several additional budget analyses.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4492

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416