California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - However, our Fiscal Outlook revenue forecast, shown in Figure  2 , reflects a smaller, temporary upgrade which reverses beginning in 2026 ‑ 27 —resulting in 2026 ‑27 revenues being in line with budget act estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - In addition, the 2017 ‑18 budget package authorized a plan to borrow $6  billion from the state ’s cash resources to make a one ‑time supplemental payment to CalPERS. The state ’s repayments on this borrowing plan, although not technically pension payments, are also considered eligible for Proposition  2 requirements.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - (For comparison, the BSA balance would have totaled $18  billion under 2020 ‑21 Governor ’s Budget . This means the level would not quite reach the pre-COVID-19 total.) Across the budget window, the state would need to make required BSA deposits of $7.6  billion, which has three components: $1  Billion True Up for 2019 ‑20.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Governor’s Budget Roughly Balanced on Higher Revenues In November, We Anticipated the State Faced an $18   Billion Deficit. In our November Fiscal Outlook report, we estimated that the state faced an $18  billion budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - Figure 2 The State ’s New Wall of Debt (In Billions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079