How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It.   As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It.   As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Gaming. [Ballot]

Dec 18, 2023 - It also prohibits banking and percentage games played with cards, dice, or other devices for monetary benefit (such as roulette and craps). Banking games generally involve players betting against the “house, ” who is a participant in the game with an interest in the outcome, and percentage games generally involve the house receiving a percentage of the money involved in the game.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2023-030

Sports wagering. [Ballot]

Dec 18, 2023 - At minimum, these regulations must limit wagering to (1) bets made by people age of 21 and older; (2) professional or college sporting events that do not include animals other than horses; and (3) amateu r sporting events that do not include children under the age of 18.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2023-031

An Update on California Competes [EconTax Blog]

Mar 10, 2023 - One potential interpretation is that the state is making high risk-high reward bets on businesses. While many of these bets do not pan out, the ones that do can be successful enough to yield overall benefits for the state.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/771

The 2023-24 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 16, 2022 - We think much of this drop reflects the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID ‑19 in the middle of the 2021 ‑22 school year. Our outlook assumes districts recover about half this drop in 2022 ‑23, with incremental improvements in subsequent years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4648

The 2022-23 Budget: Update on K-12 Student Attendance

May 11, 2022 - The preliminary P‑1 data we discussed in this post includes attendance data through December, prior to the significant surge in COVID‑19 cases from the Omicron variant. Information from specific school districts suggests that attendance rates in January and February were significantly lower than in the fall due to COVID‑19 cases and associated quarantines.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4595

The 2022-23 Budget: Analysis of Child Welfare Proposals and Program Implementation Updates

Feb 22, 2022 - We note that, since these flexibilities expired at the end of the 2021 calendar year, families impacted by the Omicron variant in early 2022 are not eligible. Flexibilities and expansions for NMDs/former NMDs who turn 21 or otherwise lose eligibility for EFC due to pandemic 1.8 49.1 — Federal flexibilities and expansion ended September 30, 2021.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4558