The 2026-27 Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 1, 2026 - As we release publications aimed at addressing the 2026-27 budget situation, we will add them to this index page.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5107

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - The Legislature can first assess whether the problem addressed by the program is well defined. For example, is the program aimed at a well-understood gap or market failure? Does the problem still exist in the way it did when the program was created?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Instead, our forecast includes income tax collections that are somewhat weaker than suggested by cash trends, but still tens of billions of dollars above where they would be if stocks actually drop significantly.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk January 23, 2026 Tweet Gabriel PetekLegislative Analyst History suggests that fiscal risks can build during times when they are easiest to ignore.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

Nov 16, 2022 - Real Value The real value of a dollar refers to the amount of goods and services that dollar can buy. Over  time, the real value of a dollar decreases due to inflation. For example, suppose the state spends $100,000 to provide services to ten people.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4647

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - That  said, after adjusting for inflation, anticipated revenues for 2023 ‑24 still would remain about 20  percent higher than before the pandemic. Governor ’s Budget Likely Unaffordable in Future Years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - However, on a cash basis, these costs would still be paid in 2025‑26 as they are incurred. Like other budget maneuvers, this creates a misalignment between the state’s cash position and its budgetary costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - Other tools, like reserve withdrawals and cost shifts, also can be used only once, but at any time. Saving them to deploy in the future can help the Legislature avoid cuts to ongoing services —which involve very difficult decisions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - While the Legislature could still reallocate funds among programs —for example, by spending less in one area, it could make expansions in another —further expansions to programs not coupled with such reductions would not be feasible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Although this is a clear improvement over current law, it also implies that, even under the Governor’s proposal, either reductions to core services or tax increases would still be common. In our view, this means more improvements are warranted.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028