California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - K ‑12 Attendance Projected to Drop in 2021 ‑22, Rise Over the Following Four Years. The state did not collect school attendance data in 2020 ‑21 due to the pandemic and the temporary switch to remote learning.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of Proposition 98 Proposals [Publication Details]

Jan 27, 2022 - This analysis describes the overall structure of the Governor's plan for school and community college funding, including the major spending proposals and underlying estimates of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4502

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Constitutionally required spending is higher under the administration ’s estimates by about $13  billion across the budget window. This  increases the administration ’s estimate of the deficit relative to our forecast, partially offsetting some of the revenue improvement.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - As shown in Figure  13 , since Proposition  2 was passed, excess capital gains to Proposition  2 have been reduced between 0  percent to 30  percent each year (larger increments are also possible, if not likely, in the future).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - In this report, we provide a brief summary of the Governor ’s budget based on our initial review as of January 12. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release many additional issue ‑specific budget  analyses.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Appendix 4: Large One-Time and Temporary Augmentations Transportation Appendix 4, Figure 1 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Business and Labor General Fund (In millions) Begin new information technology overhaul
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - The budget package includes trailer bill legislation (Chapter  13 of 2023 [A B  119 , Committee on Budget]) to renew a tax on health insurance plans known as the MCO tax. Chapter  13 authorizes the tax from April 2023 through December 2026.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788