The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The Definition of Qualified Capital Outlay for the State Appropriations Limit

Feb 18, 2022 - We think reading this definition fairly broadly is reasonable. As such, maintenance or deferred maintenance —which extend the useful life or increase the value of the asset —can be considered excluded under SAL.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4547

Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - The value of doing multiyear budget estimates is evident when considering the role they can play in budget development. When developing our main forecasts, both our office and DOF make their best estimate, aiming for the median scenario.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - While the budget picture is fair for the upcoming year, our outlook suggests that the state faces double ‑digit operating deficits in the years to come. By historical standards, spending growth in this year ’s outlook is high.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - But since macroeconomic dynamics are multifaceted and context dependent, successfully predicting the scenario that will play out is virtually impossible. Consider as evidence that in just the last several years —during and after the COVID-19 pandemic —consensus macroeconomic forecasts have been wildly off from actual outcomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - For some exclusions, like federal and court mandates, legislative decisions play a limited role in increasing or decreasing the excluded spending. But for other exclusions, like subventions to local governments and spending on capital outlay projects, the Legislature has much more discretion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4598

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - For some exclusions, like federal and court mandates, legislative decisions play little role in increasing or decreasing the excluded spending. But for two exclusions, subventions to local governments and spending on capital outlay projects, the Legislature can exercise some discretion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - For example, the Legislature will want to consider whether t he proposal fairly assigns costs to payers that should bear the fiscal burden, as well as whether the charges can be adjusted in future years to address inflation or other cost increases in order to avoid future structural deficits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2022 - Whereas we often noted previously that the administration ’s multiyear revenue estimates appear to be fairly cautious, we would characterize this year ’s estimates as a middle of the road among potential outcomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4492