California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This is because constitutional spending requirements under Proposition  98 (1988) and Proposition  2 (2014) almost entirely offset revenue gains. Moreover, we estimate costs in other programs to be about $6  billion higher than anticipated.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Under two voter initiatives, the State Constitution requires the state to set aside a share of revenues for schools and community colleges (Proposition  98, 1988) and debt payments and reserve deposits (Proposition  2, 2014).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - The  largest component is a $1.5  billion upward revision to the entering fund balance, primarily driven by higher ‑than ‑expected reversions of unspent funds and lower required Proposition  2 (2014) debt payments.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - By 2014, actuaries projected Ca lSTRS ’ assets would be depleted within a few decades. The Legislature passed Chapter  46 of 2014 (A B  1469 , Bonta), establishing a funding plan with the aim of reversing that projection and fully eliminating the Defined Benefit Program ’s unfunded liabilities by 2046.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - Proposition  2 (2014) governs deposits into and withdrawals from the state ’s general-purpose constitutional reserve —the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). Under these rules, the state can make withdrawals from the constitutionally required balance of the BSA in a fiscal emergency, which occurs when estimated resources for the upcoming year are insufficient to cover the costs of the previous three enacted budgets, adjusted for inflation and population.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902