California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This is about $5  billion larger than the budget problem anticipated by the administration in June. Figure  3 provides our estimates of the General Fund condition, including our estimate of the budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Revenues increased by nearly 30 percent in 2020-21 and another 20 percent in 2021-22. In the course of allocating the historically large surpluses generated by the revenue surge, General Fund spending increased commensurately.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - Our recent revenue post suggests an improvement in revenues of around $5 billion relative to the Governor’s budget estimates. Under the state’s constitutional budget formulas, a revenue increase of this magnitude would translate, very roughly, into a $2.5 billion improvement in the budget bottom line.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - In 2018 ‑ 19 t hrough 2020 ‑21, the state also spent roughly close to $ 5  b illion for wildfire response and remediation through the Disaster Response and Emergency Operations Account (DREOA). While a significant share of these costs are assumed to be reimbursed by the federal government —and therefore excluded from proceeds of taxes —the administration currently is not counting any of the state ’s emergency spending as an exemption under  the  SAL.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Ongoing, the Governor ’s spending ‑related solutions provide $5  billion in savings within a few years. Appendix 1 provides a list of the Governor ’s budget solutions. Generates $5.6 Billion School and Community College Settle‑Up Obligation in 2025‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Other Spending Lower by $5 Billion. Across the rest of the budget, our estimate of costs in 2020 ‑21 and 2021 ‑22 are lower than budget act estimates by about $5 billion. There are many factors contributing to these savings, but two major ones.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 27, 2021 - Under the June 2021 b udget plan, the total required deposit is $4. 5 b illion —$1. 9 b illion in 2020 ‑21 and $2. 6 b illion in 2021 ‑22. The largest discretionary allocation of Proposition 98 funding is $12. 5 b illion to pay down the deferrals the state adopted as part of the June 2020 b udget plan.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4448