The Definition of Qualified Capital Outlay for the State Appropriations Limit

Feb 18, 2022 - There are also some properties that appear to meet the de finition, although perhaps less clearly, like information technology projects. Does the State Need to Own the Asset to Count It as an Exclusion?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4547

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - For example, we recommend the Legislature: Do Not Suspend the $3  Billion True Up Into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - For example, two major proposals raise concerns for our office: the suspension of net operating loss (NOL) de ductions and unallocated state operations reductions. Finally, given that our revenue forecast is somewhat below the administration ’s forecast, we would suggest the Legislature consider whether or not it is comfortable with this downside risk to the state ’s budget picture.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Second, while our revenue estimates hedge against a market downturn, they do not reflect the revenue declines the state would experience in a recession. Third, the state has used most of its budget resiliency tools to address prior deficits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Specifically, our November forecasted spending growth is about 6  percent over the multiyear period (2026-27 thought 2028-29) —a growth rate that is high by historical outlook standards and slightly above what we consider to be long-term revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - Notably, however, the administration ’s multiyear estimates include a negative SFEU balance of $6  billion in 2022 ‑23. Despite Sizeable Surplus, Governor Maintains Borrowing and Reserve Withdrawals.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - We estimate the Governor’s budget includes $6 billion in fund shifts. This includes: using nearly $4 billion in revenue from the managed care organization tax to offset General Fund costs in Medi‑Cal and shifting $1.8 billion in costs for multiple programs from the General Fund to the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Figure  6 shows a measure of state revenue volatility put together by researchers at the Pew Charitable Trusts using 15 years of revenue collection data. According to this measure, California has one of the most volatile tax revenue systems in the country, ranking fifth out of 50 states.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Revenues for prior and current years are up a total of $6  billion, primarily reflecting stronger ‑than ‑expect personal income tax collections which are running $4  billion ahead of prior projections as of April.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044