California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - (We also include links to Appendix tables at the end of this post and the top left of this page. These appendix tables itemize select proposals by policy area based on our understanding at this time.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - (The Legislature also can withdraw the entire “discretionary” balance of the BSA at any time, which are amounts that were deposited into the fund on top of Proposition 2 requirements.) The Governor proposes withdrawing half of the BSA’s constitutional balance, $10.2 billion, and the entire discretionary balance, $1.8 billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - (The Legislature also can withdraw the entire “discretionary ” balance of the BSA at any time, which are amounts that were deposited into the fund on top of Proposition  2 requirements.) In the May Revision, the Governor proposes withdrawing about $3  billion from the BSA —significantly less than the roughly $12  billion withdrawal proposed in January.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - The  top of Figure 10 shows how funding and costs change over the period under our main forecast. The lighter shaded area represents the amount available for new commitments, assuming no changes to current law or policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687