California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Suspension Proposal

Jan 29, 2021 - Under its own revenue forecast, assuming the suspensions were operative, the administration estimates operating deficits would grow from $7. 6  b illion in 2022 ‑ 23 t o $11. 3  b illion in 2024 ‑25.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4328

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - The Governor ’s budget also maintains a $7  billion withdrawal from the BSA in 2025-26. If a May Revision windfall exceeds the amount needed to fund the true up, we recommend the Legislature use those resources to reduce the size of this withdrawal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 27, 2021 - Under the June 2021 b udget plan, the total required deposit is $4. 5 b illion —$1. 9 b illion in 2020 ‑21 and $2. 6 b illion in 2021 ‑22. The largest discretionary allocation of Proposition 98 funding is $12. 5 b illion to pay down the deferrals the state adopted as part of the June 2020 b udget plan.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4448

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - Budget Structure This section and figure  6 describe the allocation of the $38  billion General Fund surplus, which excludes spending on schools and community colleges. The Governor allocates: $25  billion to one-time or temporary spending, including nearly $15  billion for capital outlay; $7  billion to revenue-related reductions; $3.4  billion to the Special
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Moreover, we estimate costs in other programs to be about $6  billion higher than anticipated. Starting in 2027 ‑28, we estimate structural deficits to grow to about $35  billion annually due to spending growth continuing to outstrip revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - However, CalSTRS announced after the close of the 2020 ‑21 fiscal year that the system ’s assets returned 27.2 percent in that year. This investment return experience is well above CalSTRS ’ assumed annual rate of 7 percent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - After accounting for proposed budget solutions, the administration estimates the state has $15.2  billion in one ‑time or temporary spending scheduled for 2023 ‑24, $9.3  billion in 2024 ‑25, and $6  billion in 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Revenues increased by nearly 30 percent in 2020-21 and another 20 percent in 2021-22. In the course of allocating the historically large surpluses generated by the revenue surge, General Fund spending increased commensurately.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416