California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - In addition, the administration estimated the state would continue to face structural deficits between $15  billion and $25  billion through  2028 ‑29. 2026 ‑27 Budget Problem Now Larger Than Anticipated.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - As shown in Figure  1, our estimates are broadly consistent with those of the administration. Both our office and the Department of Finance (DOF) project operating deficits ranging from $10  billion to $20  billion over the multiyear period.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - We define a delay as a proposal that reduces expenditures within the budget window (2023 ‑24 through 2025 ‑26) but shifts those costs to a future year in the multiyear period (2026 ‑27 through 2028 ‑29).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - In total, the spending plan maintains a total of $29  billion for these packages across a seven ‑year period (2021 ‑28), which represents 79  percent of the original multiyear planned amounts ($36  billion).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Specifically, our November forecasted spending growth is about 6  percent over the multiyear period (2026-27 thought 2028-29) —a growth rate that is high by historical outlook standards and slightly above what we consider to be long-term revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - Taken together, the administration estimates these proposals would reduce revenues by around $150  million in 2025 ‑26, reaching $300  million by  2028 ‑29. Discretionary Reserves Sets Discretionary Reserve Balance to $4.5   Billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook [Publication Details]

May 24, 2025 - This post presents our office’s forecast of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2028-29 under our revenue estimates and assuming the Governor’s May Revision policies were adopted.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5052