California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Suspension Proposal

Jan 29, 2021 - Under its own revenue forecast, assuming the suspensions were operative, the administration estimates operating deficits would grow from $7. 6  b illion in 2022 ‑ 23 t o $11. 3  b illion in 2024 ‑25.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4328

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - (In addition, the Constitution requires the state to set aside $11  billion for reserves and debt payments. We also describe those below.) One-Time Spending The Governor proposes spending $25  billion of General Fund surplus monies on a one-time or temporary basis.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - Baseline Spending Higher by $11   Billion. Across the rest of the budget, other baseline costs are higher by $11  billion. This is primarily the result of early legislative action, including adopting $5.7  billion in a variety of revenue reductions —such as the restoration of net operating loss deductions —and $2.7  billion for rental assistance.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4598

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Throughout this period, as shown on the right side of Figure  3, the SFEU balance was generally enacted around 1  percent to 3  percent of revenues —very small compared to the reserves and surpluses of the decades before.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Although this represents an increase relative to the 2021 ‑22 enacted level, the balance of the BSA would remain below the pre ‑pandemic level of 11  percent of revenues. (Figure 3 does not display an estimate for total reserves in 2022 ‑23 because this level largely will be determined by discretionary choices made by the Legislature.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - Compared with the estimates in the June 2020 budget plan, the administration revises its estimates of the guarantee up $1.9  billion (2.4  percent) in 2019 ‑20 and $11.9  billion (16.8  percent) in 2020 ‑21.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - Between 2013 ‑14 and 2019 ‑20, the amount of school funding counting toward the state ’s limit increased from $4. 9  b illion to $17. 3  b illion. Community colleges also experienced notable increases in their apportionment funding over this period, although their increases tended to be smaller than those for school districts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - Across the budget window, the state would need to make required BSA deposits of $7.6  billion, which has three components: $1  Billion True Up for 2019 ‑20. Under the administration ’s revenue estimates, the state would need to make a true up deposit of $1  billion in 2019 ‑20.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418