California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - We have noted how following the dot-com bust and 2001 recession, California relied mostly on short-term solutions rather than realigning its structural imbalance. Consequently, the state went into the Great Recession a few years later with a structural deficit (and virtually no budget reserves), which greatly exacerbated the severity of the fiscal crisis that ensued.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - In  the budget window, for example, the administration proposes: (1)  reverting $71  million in unused EDDNext project funding early, and (2)  modifying In ‑Home Supportive Services (IHSS) eligibility to align with Medi ‑Cal, which provides $86  million in savings).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - For example, we recommend the Legislature: Do Not Suspend the $3  Billion True Up Into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - Methodology for Forecasting State Appropriations Limit (SAL) Room The analysis described in this section uses historical data and forecasting techniques to account for a wide range of possible economic and policy scenarios, which drive different SAL outcomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - How the Spending Plan Addresses the Budget Problem The state has several types of solutions —or options —for addressing a budget problem, but the most important include: reserve withdrawals, spending reductions, revenue increases, and borrowing (for example, loaning money from other funds to the General Fund).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Examples of these metrics are described in Figure  2. Figure 2
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983