California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Moreover, we estimate costs in other programs to be about $6  billion higher than anticipated. Starting in 2027 ‑28, we estimate structural deficits to grow to about $35  billion annually due to spending growth continuing to outstrip revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - In addition, recent budgets have relied on nearly $30  billion in borrowing to address deficits, and the Governor ’s budget proposes almost $6  billion in additional borrowing (see Figure  1). A period of strong revenue growth is not an appropriate time to draw down significant reserves or continue to rely on borrowing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - After accounting for proposed budget solutions, the administration estimates the state has $15.2  billion in one ‑time or temporary spending scheduled for 2023 ‑24, $9.3  billion in 2024 ‑25, and $6  billion in 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - Across all programs in this agency (including, for example, Medi ‑Cal, In ‑Home Supportive Services, developmental services, and child care), our estimates are $6  billion higher than the administration ’s projection by 2026 ‑27.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 27, 2021 - (The full implementation costs of these ongoing proposals grow to $6. 6 b illion by 2025 ‑26.) Additionally, the budget includes hundreds of millions of dollars for continued temporary assistance related to the COVID ‑ 19 p andemic response and support in child welfare, In ‑Home Supportive Services (IHSS), and CalWORKs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4448

Overview of American Rescue Plan: Implications for California [Publication Details]

Mar 18, 2021 - Presented to: Assembly Subcommittee No. 6 on Budget Process, Oversight and Program Evaluation Hon. Philip Y. Ting, Chair
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4405

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028