California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - As we described in our November Fiscal Outlook , the recent stronger-than-expected revenue trends are almost entirely explained by the personal income tax (PIT), which has seen double digit growth this year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 27, 2022 - A total of 80  percent of the revenue from this tax will go to the counties where lithium extraction occurs, while the other 20  percent will go to the Salton Sea Restoration Fund. The budget package also prohibits local governments from levying excise taxes on lithium extraction or storage.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4626

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Figure  1 shows the relative size and expected growth rates of major General Fund programs. Larger bubbles reflect higher levels of spending and bubbles farther to the right reflect higher rates of expected growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2025-26 Budget: California Spending Plan Series [Publication Details]

Oct 16, 2025 - The 2025-26 Budget: California Spending Plan Series [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5105

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Over the coming months, if California ’s labor market and consumers begin to show signs of a broadening recovery, the state ’s fiscal position is likely to be on better footing. It remains to be seen whether this will occur, but there are some conceivable paths toward broader improvements.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - None of these levels—both on the revenue and spending side—are consistent with shortfalls seen during recessions. Because Recent Budgets Focused on One ‑Time and Temporary Spending, Ongoing Spending Level Is Still Sustainable.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - Figure  3 shows historical calculations of the state ’s limit and appropriations subject to the limit. Initially, the SAL had little effect on state budgeting. During the late 1970s and early 1980s, high inflation and slow revenue growth increased room under the limit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - Although aligning revenue estimates might reduce the potential for confusion, doing so would risk creating bigger problems. In particular, it could provide a false sense of certainty about the state ’s fiscal position.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2024-25 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 2, 2024 - Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) Budget-Related Legislation Provides Legislative Oversight of GenAI Executive Order (EO). Chapter 35 of 2024 (SB 108, Wiener) requires the Government Operations Agency (GovOps) to establish monthly meetings with legislative staff to discuss implementation of EO N-12-23 , the state’s first EO on GenAI.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4934

The 2024-25 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 2, 2024 - Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) Budget-Related Legislation Provides Legislative Oversight of GenAI Executive Order (EO). Chapter 35 of 2024 (SB 108, Wiener) requires the Government Operations Agency (GovOps) to establish monthly meetings with legislative staff to discuss implementation of EO N-12-23 , the state’s first EO on GenAI.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4934/governors-office-of-emergency-services