Bottom Line: California income tax withholding this week made up for last week’s decline, and total collections since late March sit at just 1.6 percent below the comparable period in 2019.
California employers are required to make regular income tax withholding payments for their employees, which can provide a real-time indication of the direction and magnitude of the aggregate change in the employers’ payrolls. Most withholding payments are for employees’ wages and salaries, but withholding is also due on bonuses and stock options received by employees. We caution against giving too much weight to withholding numbers in any given week because a single anomalous day can result in numbers that are difficult to interpret. Nonetheless, given the pace and severity of the shift in the state’s economy resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, tracking weekly withholding is worthwhile as a way to assess the state’s rapidly changing economic situation.
The first graph compares withholding payments received this week to payments received in the comparable week in 2019, which ran from Monday, July 22 to Friday, July 26 of that year. Withholding was up 13 percent from the comparable week in 2019, as Tuesday was an unusually big collection day. Collections over the last two weeks combined were almost exactly equal to the same period in 2019.
The second graph shows total withholding collections since Monday, March 23, when we first started to see evidence of an impact of the pandemic on withholding. As shown in the graph, total collections between March 23 and July 24 are down 1.6 percent ($352 million) compared to 2019, a new record low deficit since we started tracking this data in March. The cumulative decline stood at 2.2 percent ($472 million) last week.
The final graph shows the year over year changes in cumulative withholding for California in 2020, the United States in 2020 (from the federal income tax), and California in 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession. California’s withholding decline this year has been less steep than it was in 2009, and not nearly as sharp as the federal decline this year. While California’s economy has been hurt as badly by the recession as the national economy has, its withholding collections have likely held up better because its income tax falls more heavily on the higher-paid workers who have experienced fewer employment losses than their lower-paid counterparts. Federal withholding this week was also somewhat up from 2019, and the comparable week in California in 2009 was little changed from 2008.