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State Budget Condition Publications

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Report

Analysis of the 2005-06 Budget Bill

February 24, 2005 - Our annual detailed examination of the Budget Bill based on the Governor's Budget. It includes hundreds of findings and recommendations related to education, health and social services, criminal justice, transportation, resources, capital outlay, information technology, and local government.

Handout

Handout: Presentation of the 2005-06 Perspectives and Issues

February 23, 2005 - This handout consists of charts used at the press conference for the presentation of the 2005-06 Perspectives and Issues.

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Highlights of the 2005-06 Perspectives and Issues

February 22, 2005 - This document summarizes the major findings in the 2005-06 Perspectives and Issues.

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An Overview of State Expenditures 2005-06

February 22, 2005 - The budget proposes total state expenditures of $109 billion in 2005-06. This includes $85.7 billion from the General Fund (up 4.2 percent from the current year) and $23.3 billion from special funds (up 5.3 percent from the current year). The overall General Fund spending growth rate reflects (1) changes in caseloads and utilization for major programs; (2) the impacts of the Governor's savings proposals; and (3) the impacts of numerous other special factors, such as one-time savings in the 2004-05 budget. The proposal includes about $3.5 billion in new budgetary borrowing related primarily to deficit-financing bonds, a judgment bond, and Proposition 42 suspension. This brings the total amount of budgetary borrowing outstanding to about $29 billion as of the end of 2005-06.

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Major Expenditure Proposals in the 2005-06 Budget

February 22, 2005 - We discuss several of the most significant spending proposals in the budget.

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Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics 2005-06

February 22, 2005 - The California economy is expanding at a healthy pace in early 2005, as evidenced by real estate construction, exports, company reports of sales and profits, and business-related tax receipts. The one area of concern remains jobs, which are lagging due to intense focus on cost cutting and efficiencies. We project the California economic expansion to continue at a moderate pace, with personal income expanding by roughly 5.6 percent and jobs growing 1.5 percent annually during the next two years.

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State Fiscal Picture 2005-06

February 22, 2005 - The Legislature has an important budget opportunity. We project that revenues are $2.2 billion higher (for the current and budget years combined) than reflected in the Governor's budget. This, combined with the magnitude of ongoing solutions proposed in the budget plan, would result in a balanced 2005-06 budget with a solid reserve. However, the price of inaction is significant. Without the adoption of ongoing solutions of the magnitude offered by the budget plan, the 2005-06 budget would be precariously balanced and the state would experience major budget shortfalls in 2006-07 and beyond. These shortfalls would be close to $10 billion.

Report

2005-06 Budget: Perspectives and Issues

February 22, 2005 - The Legislature has an important budget opportunity. We project that revenues are $2.2 billion higher (for the current and budget years combined) than reflected in the Governor's budget. This, combined with the magnitude of ongoing solutions proposed in the budget plan, would result in a balanced 2005-06 budget with a solid reserve. However, the price of inaction is significant. Without the adoption of ongoing solutions of the magnitude offered by the budget plan, the 2005-06 budget would be precariously balanced and the state would experience major budget shortfalls in 2006-07 and beyond. These shortfalls would be close to $10 billion.

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Assessing the Governor's Reorganization Proposals

February 22, 2005 - On January 6, 2005, the administration released its plans to eliminate 88 boards and commissions and to reorganize the Youth and Adult Correctional Agency (YACA). For each of the plans, we provide an assessment of its fiscal effect and raise key issues. Although the administration recently has decided not to forward its boards and commissions proposal to the Legislature, the piece provides key considerations for the Legislature when seeking to consolidate these types of entities. Regarding the YACA proposal, we conclude it has the potential to improve the efficiency, accountability, and effectiveness of the state's prison system. However, the plan omits important details that the Legislature requires in order to fully evaluate its merits. Our analysis indicates that the proposed reorganization would probably result in net costs in the short term, but has the potential to achieve significant long-term net savings by placing a greater emphasis on inmate rehabilitation as a means of increasing public safety.

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Overview of the 2005-06 Governor's Budget

January 12, 2005 - The Governor's proposal contains significant program savings—particularly in K-12 education, social services, and transportation—and borrowing to address the state's 2005-06 budget shortfall. While the 2005-06 proposal has several positive attributes, it falls well short of fully addressing the state's ongoing projected fiscal imbalances. Moreover, its budget reform proposals would put more future state spending on "cruise control" and hamper the ability of future policy makers to establish budget priorities.

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Cal Facts: California's Economy and Budget in Perspective-2004

December 6, 2004 - Various "snapshot" pieces of information, providing a broad overview of public finance and program trends in the state. It consists of a series of charts and tables which address questions frequently asked of our office.

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LAO Recommended Legislation

December 6, 2004 - The role of the Legislative Analyst's Office is to review state programs and make recommendations to the Legislature as to how the state can operate more effectively and efficiently. While most of our recommendations can be addressed in the annual budget bill, some involve recommended changes in law that require separate legislation. This report summarizes various changes to law that we have recommended in recent years.

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California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections, 2004-05 Through 2009-10

November 17, 2004 - According to our projections, the state is facing a year-end shortfall of $6.7 billion in 2005-06. Over the longer term, absent corrective actions, the state faces persistent annual current-law operating deficits that peak at nearly $10 billion in 2006-07, before narrowing somewhat in subsequent years.

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California Spending Plan 2004-05: The Budget Act and Related Legislation

September 22, 2004 - The state spending plan for 2004-05 includes total expenditures from all funds of $105.4 billion. This total includes budgetary spending of $102.4 billion, reflecting $78.7 billion from the General Fund and $23.7 billion from special funds. In addition, spending from selected bond funds totals $3 billion. The 2004-05 budget includes significant ongoing savings and it makes some progress toward resolving the state's ongoing structural budget shortfall. Nevertheless, like the two prior budgets, the current spending plan (1) contains a significant number of one-time or limited-term solutions and (2) obligates additional spending in future years. The combination of these factors suggests that state will continue to face out-year budget shortfalls, absent corrective action.

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An Initial Assessment of the California Performance Review

August 27, 2004 - On August 3, 2004, the California Performance Review (CPR) released its report on reforming California's state government, with the aim of making it more efficient and more responsive to its citizens. This report provides our initial comments on the CPR report. Specifically, we: (1) provide an overview of its reorganization framework and other individual recommendations, (2) discuss the savings it assumes from its major proposals, and (3) raise key issues and considerations relating to CPR's various proposals.

State Budget Condition Staff

Ann Hollingshead
(916) 319-8305
State Budget and Federal Funding
 
Carolyn Chu
(916) 319-8326
Chief Deputy Legislative Analyst