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MOU Fiscal Analysis: Bargaining Units 1, 3, 4, 11, 14, 15, 17, 20, and 21 (SEIU Local 1000) [Revised]

December 22, 2010 - We reviewed the recently ratified labor agreements with the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 1000, the largest state employee union. The administration estimates that the state's net savings under the proposed agreements will be $383 million ($164 million General Fund) in the current fiscal year—compared with costs negotiated in prior Local 1000 memoranda of understanding (MOUs). The administration’s estimates are generally reasonable, but we (1) discuss concerns we have with the administration’s assumption that leave days will not result in overtime costs or productivity losses, and (2) compare the MOUs’ costs with the previous three-day-per-month furlough program. Finally, we discuss the current status of state employee collective bargaining and major employee compensation policies currently affecting executive branch employees.


Handout

Real Estate Fraud Prosecution Trust Fund Program

December 16, 2010 - Current law requires the Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) to report annually to the Legislature certain information related to real estate fraud cases in counties that participate in the Real Estate Fraud Prosecution Trust Fund Program. The report must also include information on the types of expenditures made by the law enforcement agencies of those counties. Our review found that, by 2009-10, 21 counties had reported data indicating their participation in the program at an annual statewide cost of about $10 million, with significant variation in expenditures from county to county. In this report, we further analyze this data and offer recommendations to clarify a 10 percent cap on administrative costs incurred in the program as well as to modify the current program reporting requirements.


Handout

Trends in Underlying General Fund Expenditures

December 10, 2010 - Presented to: Hon. Robert Dutton, Senator, 31st District.


Report

Overview of the Governor’s December 2010 Special Session Proposals

December 7, 2010 - On December 6, 2010, Governor Schwarzenegger declared a fiscal emergency and called the new Legislature into special session to address the anticipated 2010‑11 General Fund deficit—estimated by our office at $6.1 billion. The Governor’s special session proposals would decrease the gap between General Fund revenues and expenditures by $1.9 billion in 2010‑11 and by $8 million in 2011‑12, thereby reducing the $25.4 billion budget problem that we have identified to $15.5 billion. The Governor's proposals consist of $7.4 billion of expenditure-related reductions and two major revenue proposals. Essentially all of these proposals were rejected earlier this year by the prior Legislature. The Governor also proposes to transfer vehicle weight fee revenues to the General Fund. This would achieve an estimated $850 million in budget solutions in 2010‑11 and $727 million in 2011‑12 by reimbursing the General Fund with weight fee revenues for certain transportation bond debt service costs, and also loaning a portion of the weight fee revenues to the General Fund. Under the proposal, the fuel tax revenues that would have helped the General Fund prior to Proposition 22 would now be available for transportation programs.


Handout

California’s Fiscal Outlook: Proposition 98 Briefing

November 10, 2010 - California's Fiscal Outlook: Proposition 98 stakeholder briefing.


Other

Webcasts: California's Fiscal Outlook

November 10, 2010 - Three short webcasts summarizing our 2011-12 Fiscal Outlook publication. Includes: (1) Overview, (2) Revenue and Economic Outlook, and (3) Proposition 98.


Report

California’s Fiscal Outlook: The 2011-12 Budget

November 10, 2010 - Our forecast of California’s General Fund revenues and expenditures shows that the state must address a budget problem of $25.4 billion between now and the time the Legislature enacts a 2011‑12 state budget plan. The budget problem consists of a $6 billion projected deficit for 2010‑11 and a $19 billion gap between projected revenues and spending in 2011‑12. Similar to our forecast of one year ago, we project annual budget problems of about $20 billion each year through 2015‑16. We continue to recommend that the Legislature initiate a multiyear approach to solving California’s recurring structural budget deficit. In 2011‑12, such an approach might involve $10 billion of permanent revenue and expenditure actions and $15 billion of temporary budget solutions. In 2012‑13, 2013‑14, and 2014‑15, another few billion of permanent actions each year could be initiated, along with other temporary budget solutions, and so on until the structural deficit was eliminated.


Letter

Sale Leaseback of State Office Buildings

November 9, 2010 - In a previous analysis, we pointed out that the sale-leaseback of state buildings authorized in 2009 legislation was poor fiscal policy and represented one imperfect option among many for balancing the state’s budget. Mainly due to changes in the interpretation of property tax assessments, our forecast of the cost of the sale-leaseback is approximately $800 million greater than our previous analysis. The Legislature may wish to consider whether this increase in costs merits changing course.


Handout

Overview of Cunningham v. California and Related Legislation

November 9, 2010 - Presented to Assembly Public Safety Committee


Report

The Budget Package: 2010-11 California Spending Plan

November 4, 2010 - The 2010–11 state spending plan includes total budget expenditures of $117.4 billion from the General Fund and special funds. This consists of $86.6 billion from the General Fund and $30.9 billion from special funds. While this level of budgeted General Fund spending is far below the $103 billion recorded in 2007–08, it is $203 million—0.2 percent—higher than in 2009–10. Spending from special funds, however, is budgeted to be $7.5 billion—32.3 percent—higher than in 2010–11, driven mainly by recent changes in Medi–Cal and transportation funding that were enacted in part to offset costs in the General Fund. In addition, the budget assumes spending from bond funds of about $8 billion as the state continues to allocate moneys from the $43 billion bond package approved at the November 2006 election. The budget plan (including gubernatorial vetoes) includes the following actions: $7.8 billion of expenditure–related solutions; $5.4 billion of new federal funding; and $3.3 billion of revenue actions.


Handout

Overview of the Division of Juvenile Facilities

November 4, 2010 - Presented to: Joint Legislative Audit Committee Hon. Alyson Huber, Chair


Other

Webcast: Using Distance Education to Increase College Access and Efficiency

October 25, 2010 - Analyst Paul Steenhausen discusses the LAO report "The Master Plan at 50: Using Distance Education to Increase College Access and Efficiency."


Report

The Master Plan at 50: Using Distance Education to Increase College Access and Efficiency

October 25, 2010 - While distance education is not—and is not intended to be—suitable for everyone (students as well as faculty), we find that it offers an important alternative means of providing instruction that can complement existing formats and expand options for the state’s students and segments. In order to take fuller advantage of this potential, we believe that the Legislature should guide a clearer statewide vision that specifies data which the segments should collect and report on distance–education students, and which clarifies expectations concerning intercampus collaborations and other partnerships. To that end, we make a number of recommendations.

(Video Summary)


Other

Webcast: California's Other Budget Deficit--The Unemployment Insurance Fund Insolvency

October 20, 2010 - In this short video, Todd Bland, Director of the Social Services Section at the LAO discusses the report "California's Other Budget Deficit: The Unemployment Insurance Fund Insolvency."


Report

California's Other Budget Deficit: The Unemployment Insurance Fund Insolvency

October 20, 2010 - California's Unemployment Insurance (UI) program became insolvent in 2009, ending that year with a shortfall of $6.2 billion. Absent corrective action, the fund deficit is projected to increase to approximately $20 billion at the end of 2011. This report looks at the history of the UI program, compares California's program to those in other states, examines different scenarios for addressing the insolvency, and makes recommendations to the Legislature for solving this difficult problem.

(Video Summary)