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State Fiscal Effects of California’s Minimum Wage


Perspectives on State Revenues 2006-07

February 22, 2006 - The state budget continues to benefit from healthy revenue growth. After climbing by over 8 percent in 2004‑05, the 2006‑07 Governor’s Budget assumes that revenues from the state’s major taxes will increase further by 6.2 percent in 2005‑06 and 5.7 percent in 2006‑07. The administration’s current forecast is up substantially from the estimates included in the 2005‑06 Budget Act. It is also up significantly from our office’s prior forecast presented in November 2005. In addition, for the current year and budget year combined, our revised General Fund estimates are higher than the administration’s by roughly $2.3 billion.


Perspectives on State Revenues 2004-05

February 18, 2004 - 2003-04 Forecast: We forecast that General Fund revenues and transfers will total $74.1 billion in the current year, a $2.8 billion (3.9 percent) increase from 2002-03. This is down $491 million from the budget forecast, of which $477 million is related to our lower estimate of personal income tax (PIT) revenues. 2004-05 Forecast: We forecast that revenues and transfers will total $75.9 billion in 2004-05, a $1.7 billion (2.4 percent) increase from the current year. This is down about $525 million from the new budget's projection, primarily reflecting the ongoing effects of the current-year reduction in PIT receipts.


Perspectives on State Revenues 2005-06

February 22, 2005 - The current strength in the economy is translating into solid growth in receipts from the state's taxes—particularly the corporate tax and personal income tax. Recent cash receipts trends have been even stronger than anticipated in the Governor's budget, mainly because of strong 2004 year-end collections from the personal income tax and corporation tax. Based largely on these positive trends, we project that General Fund revenues will exceed the budget forecast by $1.4 billion in the current year and $765 million in the budget year.


Perspectives on State Revenues 2007-08

February 21, 2007 - Following two years of major increases, it appears that revenue growth is slowing sharply in 2006-07, reflecting the impacts of a more moderate economic expansion and a dip in income from capital gains. The budget assumes that revenue growth will revive somewhat in 2007-08, led by an improving economy beginning later this year. For the current and budget years combined, we are estimating that General Fund revenues will fall below the budget forecast by $2 billion.


The 2013-14 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

November 14, 2012 - The 18th annual edition of the LAO's Fiscal Outlook--a forecast of the state's budget condition over the next five years--shows that California's budget situation has improved sharply. The state's economic recovery, prior budget cuts, and the additional, temporary taxes provided by Proposition 30 have combined to bring California to a promising moment: the possible end of a decade of acute state budget challenges. Our economic and budgetary forecast indicates that California's leaders face a dramatically smaller budget problem in 2013-14 compared to recent years. Furthermore, assuming steady economic growth and restraint in augmenting current program funding levels, there is a strong possibility of multibillion-dollar operating surpluses within a few years.


California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections, 2006-07 Through 2011-12

November 15, 2006 - Following a year in which major revenue increases were allocated to education and other state programs, California policymakers will face a much tougher budget in 2007-08. According to our updated forecast, the state’s budget faces operating shortfalls in excess of $5 billion in both 2007-08 and 2008-09, which will require significant actions to eliminate.


[PDF] Financing Considerations for Potential State Healthcare Policy Changes

February 5, 2018 - Assembly Select Committee on Health Care Delivery Systems and Universal Coverage.

2/5/18: Correction to Figure 3.


[PDF] The 2000-01 Budget: Perspectives and Issues

February 17, 2000 - Perspectives on the state's fiscal condition and the budget proposed by the Governor for 2000-01.


Perspectives on State Revenues 2000-01

February 17, 2000 - Perspectives on State Revenues 2000-01


[PDF] California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections, 2002-03 Through 2007-08

November 14, 2002 - For the second year in a row, the state faces a budget problem in excess of $20 billion. Our updated forecast indicates the following. Current Year: California will end the 2002-03 fiscal year with a General Fund deficit of $6.1 billion. Budget Year: The 2003-04 budget faces a cumulative year-end deficit of $21.1 billion, absent corrective actions. However, if California's economic performance continues to lag the shortfall could easily be several billion dollars higher. Beyond the Budget Year: Over the longer term, the state will face annual operating deficits of between roughly $12 billion and $16 billion per year.


Perspectives on State Revenues 2002-03

February 20, 2002 - The state is facing a major budget shortfall caused largely by an unprecedented decline in tax receipts. Specifically, General Fund revenues are projected to fall by over 14 percent in 2001-02, just two years after the state experienced a more than 23 percent increase. In addition, basic revenue volatility has increased in recent years, giving the revenue forecast greater uncertainty.


Perspectives on State Revenues 2001-02

February 21, 2001 - Strong economic growth through the end of 2000 is significantly boosting revenues in the current year. However, an economic slowdown in 2001 will depress revenues in the budget year.