May 18, 2022 - This handout analyzes the overall structure of the Governor's May Revision plan for school funding, including an assessment of the major augmentations and the underlying estimates of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee.
November 16, 2022 - Each year, the state calculates a “minimum guarantee” for school and community college funding based upon a set of formulas established by Proposition 98 (1988). Based upon recent signs of weakness in the economy, we estimate the guarantee in 2023‑24 is $2.2 billion (2 percent) below the 2022‑23 enacted budget level. Despite this drop, $7.6 billion would be available to provide increases for school and community college programs. In 2023‑24, the available funding could cover a cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) of up to 8.38 percent, which is slightly below our estimate of the statutory rate (8.73 percent). Over the next several years, growth in the guarantee and required reserve withdrawals would be just enough to cover the statutory COLA. Given this relatively precarious balance, we outline a few ways the Legislature could create a larger cushion to protect against revenue declines in the future.
October 24, 2022 - This post summarizes overall Proposition 98 funding and K-12 education spending in the 2022-23 budget package. It is part of our Spending Plan series, which contains posts focused on each major sector of the state budget.
November 17, 2021 - Each year, the state calculates a “minimum guarantee” for school and community college funding based upon a set of formulas established by Proposition 98 (1988). Based upon revenue projections that are significantly above the June 2021 estimates, we estimate the guarantee in 2022‑23 is $11.6 billion (12.4 percent) above the 2021‑22 enacted budget level. After accounting for various adjustments—backing out one‑time expenditures, funding a 5.35 percent cost‑of‑living adjustment, and making required reserve deposits—we estimate that $9.5 billion is available for new commitments. In addition, we estimate that $10.2 billion in one‑time funding is available due to increases in the guarantee in 2020‑21 and 2021‑22. In total, we estimate nearly $20 billion is available to allocate in the upcoming budget cycle. To help the Legislature prepare to allocate this funding, we outline several options that would build upon existing programs, expand services in targeted ways, and address future costs and uncertainties.
May 11, 2022 - In early March, the California Department of Education published the first report of 2021-22 attendance data. In this post, we provide background on the calculation of school attendance, describe findings from the updated data, and discuss a few key issues to provide greater context for the findings.
February 15, 2024 - In this report, we assess the architecture of the Governor’s overall Proposition 98 budget and analyze his major proposals for K-12 education.
February 7, 2023 - In this brief, we analyze the estimates of the Proposition 98 guarantee in the Governor’s budget and assess the overall structure of the Governor’s plan for K-12 funding.
January 9, 2023 - In this brief, we provide some historical background on the implementation of the Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF), describe how the formula works for school districts and charter schools, describe how the formula was phased in, and explain requirements for districts to adopt plans that describe how LCFF funding will be spent.
February 14, 2023 - This brief provides an overview and analysis of the Governor’s proposals for transitional kindergarten and State Preschool.
February 21, 2024 - In this brief, we analyze the Governor’s budget proposals relating to community college enrollment, apportionments, and nursing education. In addition, the brief provides a number of recommendations and options to help the Legislature address the large gap between current community college spending and available Proposition 98 funding.
November 18, 2020 - This report provides our fiscal outlook for schools and community colleges. State budgeting for schools and the California Community Colleges is governed largely by Proposition 98. The measure establishes a minimum funding requirement for K‑14 education commonly known as the minimum guarantee. This report provides our estimate of the minimum guarantee for the upcoming budget cycle. (The 2021‑22 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook contains an abbreviated version of our Proposition 98 outlook, along with the outlook for other major programs in the state budget.)
November 28, 2023 - This post summarizes overall Proposition 98 funding and K-12 education spending in the 2023-24 budget package. It is part of our Spending Plan series, which contains posts focused on each major sector of the state budget.
October 25, 2021 - This post summarizes overall Proposition 98 funding and K-12 education spending in the 2021-22 budget package. It is part of our Spending Plan series, which contains posts focused on each major sector of the state budget.
February 11, 2022 - This brief analyzes the Governor's major budget proposals for the California Community Colleges, with a focus on apportionments increases, enrollment, modifications to the Student Centered Funding Formula, part-time faculty health insurance, and deferred maintenance.