The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - New and Existing Budgetary Borrowing Increase Out-Year Budget Problems. Since 2023-24, the Legislature has addressed a cumulative total of $82  billion in budget shortfalls, with the May Revision reflecting another shortfall.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - The funds will be transferred soon, but the state has until December 31, 2024 to use the funds. The U.S. Department of the Treasury recently released detailed guidance with more detail on how these funds can be used.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of Proposition 98 Proposals [Publication Details]

Jan 27, 2022 - This analysis describes the overall structure of the Governor's plan for school and community college funding, including the major spending proposals and underlying estimates of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4502

The 2018-19 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 15, 2017 - If Congress fails to do so, the state would likely exhaust its remaining federal funds by the end of the calendar year and potentially be required to continue to cover CHIP ‑eligible children with a lower federal share of costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3718

The 2022-23 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2022 - Under our estimates of revenue and spending in the out ‑years, the state would have a very narrow operating deficit in 2023 ‑24, a  small operating surplus in 2024 ‑25, and a larger operating deficit in 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4602

Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential [Publication Details]

May 27, 2021 - This manifests in operating deficits that persist through the outlook horizon (2024‑25). Adopting a budget with this combination of assumptions is inadvisable in our view. One reason is that—given the state’s balanced-budget requirement—doing so requires assuming that the multiyear budget projections are wrong.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4443

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - When the state created the requirement for supplemental payments, it had anticipated a steep drop in the minimum guarantee that would affect school and community college funding for several years. The supplemental payments were intended to accelerate the recovery from this drop, with payments growing from $2.3  billion in 2021 ‑22 to more than $6  billion by 2024 ‑25.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - Within a few years, there is a good chance of a substantial amount of negative room. Specifically, by 2024 ‑25, the state is more likely than not to have negative room in excess of $ 10  b illion. As a result, we anticipate the Legislature will need to make —potentially major —changes to the state budget in the coming years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - For example, the minimum funding level for schools and community colleges is set by the constitutional requirements of Proposition  98 (1988). While the Legislature can change how funds within Proposition  98 are distributed, funding less than the constitutional minimum in any particular year requires a two-thirds vote and creates a future obligation for more school funding in subsequent budgets.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - In this scenario, we assume a recession begins in the third quarter of calendar year 2020, based on Moody ’s Analytics “moderate ” recession scenario. (This scenario is not based on a recent historical example, but rather a model of one possible recession scenario that Moody ’s believes could materialize in the coming years.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896