Fiscal Outlook: Estimating Home Prices [EconTax Blog]

Nov 14, 2018 - Home price growth is an important driver of growth in local property tax collections. Prices also can affect revenues from major state taxes, particularly the personal income tax and sales tax. In general, higher home prices mean more tax revenues for state and local governments.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/322

Fiscal Outlook: Estimating New Construction [EconTax Blog]

Nov 14, 2018 - New construction is a key driver of growth in assessed property values and, in turn, property tax revenue . More construction leads to higher assessed values. Below we discuss the details of our residential and commercial construction estimates used for our assessed value forecast.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/323

Fiscal Outlook: Estimating Wages and Salaries [EconTax Blog]

Nov 14, 2018 - The single largest source of General Fund revenue is the personal income tax (PIT). In order to estimate PIT revenue for our Fiscal Outlook publication, we must also make a projection of wage and salary income.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/321

Fiscal Outlook: Estimating Capital Gains Revenue [EconTax Blog]

Nov 14, 2018 - Consequently, capital gains earned by higher-income filers are taxed at higher rates. We estimate the income distribution using historical data on filings from the Franchise Tax Board and apply effective tax rates (liability as a fraction of taxable income after deductions) to income   based on recent patterns.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/319

Fiscal Outlook: In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)

Nov 14, 2018 - Since 2016 ‑17, the General Fund has supported the restoration of IHSS service hours, which were previously reduced by 7  percent, so long as the MCO tax is in place. Under current law, the MCO tax is set to expire at the end of 2018 ‑19.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3899

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - With respect to these formulas, we assume: Sales Tax Reductions Are Not Triggered. California has two statutes that trigger reductions in the state ’s sales tax rate if balances in discretionary reserves reach a certain threshold.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

Fiscal Outlook: Medi-Cal

Nov 14, 2018 - Expiration of Managed Care Organization (MCO) Tax Current MCO Tax. Since 2016-17, the state has imposed a per-member tax on Medi-Cal and non-Medi-Cal MCOs. Revenues from the MCO tax, which leverages federal funding for Medi-Cal, provide a substantial General Fund offset in Medi-Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3898

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

Nov 14, 2018 - Under Proposition  2, the state must make deposits into the BSA until its balance reaches a threshold of 10  percent of General Fund taxes. Each year that General Fund tax revenues grow, this 10  percent threshold also grows.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3900

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - Property Tax Revenue Projected to Rise. Whereas the minimum guarantee tends to be volatile, property tax revenue typically grows at a steadier pace. Under the growth scenario, property tax revenue grows from $24. 1  b illion in 2018 ‑ 19 t o $28. 5  b illion by 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3897

Transportation and high-speed rail. [Ballot]

Nov 14, 2018 - The major sources include (1)  excise taxes on gasoline and diesel, (2)  sales taxes on diesel, (3)  transportation improvement fees (an annual tax paid by vehicle owners), and (4)  truck weight fees.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2018-010