California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2012-13 Budget: Economic and Revenue Update [Publication Details]

Feb 27, 2012 - Like the economic data, reports concerning state revenues have been mixed recently too, with weakness in income tax payments accompanied by speculation concerning a future bonanza of tax revenues due to the possible offering of stock by Facebook, Inc.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/2578

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Options to Reach This Higher Threshold If the cap is raised substantially—ideally to 50 percent by 2055—the state would also need to set aside more in reserve deposits to dependably reach this higher amount.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - Note: Excludes spending on K –14 education, reserves, and debt (required by the California Constitution) and added costs to maintain existing policies. Figure also excludes some smaller spending proposals.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/1

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

Long-term Capacity for Debt Payments Under Proposition 2

Dec 21, 2017 - Estimates of Future Proposition  2 Debt Funding No Added Debt Funding Requirements in 2017 ‑18. Our estimates of General Fund revenues and capital gains suggest the state underestimated 2017‑18 Proposition 2 requirements by $1.4 billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3727

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - Required Infrastructure Spending After BSA Reaches Threshold Level. Under Proposition  2, the state must continue to deposit funds into the BSA until it reaches a threshold balance of 10  percent of General Fund tax revenue.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2020 - BSA Reaches Maximum Threshold in 2021 ‑22. Under Proposition  2, the state must make deposits into the BSA until its balance reaches a threshold of 10  p ercent of General Fund taxes. Under the administration ’s estimates, the state reaches this threshold in 2021 ‑22.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4135