California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - However, our Fiscal Outlook revenue forecast, shown in Figure  2 , reflects a smaller, temporary upgrade which reverses beginning in 2026 ‑ 27 —resulting in 2026 ‑27 revenues being in line with budget act estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - However, if the state faced a moderate recession with this level of reserves, it would also have to take roughly $ 25  b illion in actions to address a budget problem, including spending cuts, revenue increases, and cost shifts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Long-term Capacity for Debt Payments Under Proposition 2

Dec 21, 2017 - Provisions of Proposition  2 Key Provisions of Proposition  2. Proposition  2 requires the state to make: (1) minimum annual payments toward certain eligible debts (until 2029 ‑30) and (2) deposits into the state ’s rainy day fund.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3727

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - The main trade ‑off is that it would mean the state pays less toward unfunded liabilities in aggregate compared to recent Proposition  2 related actions. Apply 2023 ‑24 and 2024 ‑25 Proposition   2 Payments to Supplant State CalPERS Contributions in 2024 ‑25 and 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Figure 2 LAO May 2018 Economic Growth Scenario a Percent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated 2017
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - The withdrawal was made pursuant to the Governor ’s disaster declaration in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) public health emergency and proclamation of a budget emergency on June 25, 2020.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan—Debt Liabilities

Oct 17, 2019 - First, in each of the four fiscal years of the MOU (2019 ‑20, 2020 ‑21, 2021 ‑22, and 2022 ‑23), the Motor Vehicle Account will contribute $25  million —totaling to $100  million over the four years —to the highway patrol retirement benefit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4106