Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Under the first statute, the trigger would occur if the Director of Finance projects the SFEU to exceed about 4  p ercent of General Fund revenues (currently, about $5. 4  b illion) in the prior and current year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Specifically, we suggest the Legislature: (1) plan for lower revenues, (2) maintain a similar reserve withdrawal, (3) develop a plan for school and community college funding, (4) maximize reductions in one ‑time spending, and (5) apply a higher bar for any discretionary proposals and contain ongoing service level.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

Nov 14, 2018 - Under Proposition  58, deposits into the BSA were no longer required if the fund reached $8  billion or 5  percent of General Fund revenues, whichever was larger. Proposition  58 explicitly permitted the Legislature to transfer amounts into the BSA so that its balance exceeded either of these thresholds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3900

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This is about $5  billion larger than the budget problem anticipated by the administration in June. Figure  3 provides our estimates of the General Fund condition, including our estimate of the budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - For example, the simultaneous occurrence of very low unemployment (below 4  percent) and high inflation (above 4  percent) has, for the past 70 years, always preceded a recession within two years. Although inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, appears to be trending down from the recent peak of 9.1  percent in June 2022, as of March, it remained 5  percent, or 2.5 times the Federal Reserve ’s (the Fed ’s) target.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Appendix 4: Large One-Time and Temporary Augmentations Transportation Appendix 4, Figure 1 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Business and Labor General Fund (In millions) Begin new
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update Deficit Update Under LAO Revenue Update, Budget Problem Grows by $15  Billion The state already faces a significant deficit this year — we estimate it totaled $58 billion under the administration’s revenue forecast at the time the Governor’s budget was proposed in January.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - The CHP estimates future expenditures from the MVA of $4. 5  m illion in 2019 ‑20, $4. 9  m illion in 2020 ‑21, and $509, 000 i n 2021 ‑ 22 i n order to complete the replacement project. Vehicle Fleet Replacement.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/10

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028