California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - In a 2003 decision in Paterno v. California , a state appellate court found the state was responsible for a levee failure along the Yuba River in 1986. The state eventually paid a $ 464  m illion settlement to the nearly 3, 000 p laintiffs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2019-20 Budget: Undoing California’s Outstanding Budgetary Deferrals

Mar 26, 2019 - The state has had budgetary deferrals in Medi-Cal since 2003 ‑04 as described below: Accrual to Cash Budget. In 2003 ‑04, the Medi-Cal budget transitioned from an accrual basis, in which funds are appropriated based on when health care services are rendered, to a cash basis, in which funds are appropriated based on when the bill for such services is actually paid.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3988

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2019-20 May Revision: Opportunity Zones

May 11, 2019 - Specifically, we examined whether New Market Tax Credits had a measurable effect on the incomes of residents of zip codes that received New Market Tax Credit investments between 2003 and 2014. To do so, we first matched each zip code that received investment with another zip code in California that (1)  was eligible but did not receive New Market Tax Credit investments and (2)  had residents with similar incomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4038

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092