Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Moreover, we estimate costs in other programs to be about $6  billion higher than anticipated. Starting in 2027 ‑28, we estimate structural deficits to grow to about $35  billion annually due to spending growth continuing to outstrip revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

Nov 14, 2018 - Reserve Deposits Under Proposition  58 Proposition  58 Governed BSA Deposits From 2004 to 2014. With the approval of Proposition  58 in 2004, voters created the BSA. Proposition  58 required the state to make an annual deposit into the BSA.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3900

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - We Estimate the Administration Solved a Larger Budget Problem —$58   Billion. While the Governor cited a budget problem of $38  billion, we estimate the administration solved a budget problem of $58  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update Deficit Update Under LAO Revenue Update, Budget Problem Grows by $15  Billion The state already faces a significant deficit this year — we estimate it totaled $58 billion under the administration’s revenue forecast at the time the Governor’s budget was proposed in January.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - The budget provides a $ 58  m illion increase from the State Highway Account (SHA) to address what Caltrans characterizes as insufficient funding for its existing positions. The augmentation is spread across Caltrans ’ programs based on their historical compensation expenditures and position history, with most of the increase going to highway maintenance ($20. 5  m illion) and administration ($16. 1  m illion).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/10

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - Appendix 4, Figure 6 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Public Safety General Fund (In millions) Organized Retail, Motor Vehicle, and Cargo Theft Prevention Grants (Public Safety Package) $85 Augmentation to California Violence Intervention and Prevention Program 66 Note: Includes augmentations above $50 million BSCC = Board of State and Community Corrections.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4