Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

Nov 14, 2018 - Proposition  58 required BSA deposits to increase from 1  percent of General Fund revenues in 2006 ‑07 to 3  percent in 2008 ‑09 and every year thereafter. Proposition  58 Required Deposits Until BSA Reached Certain Size.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3900

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - We Estimate the Administration Solved a Larger Budget Problem —$58   Billion. While the Governor cited a budget problem of $38  billion, we estimate the administration solved a budget problem of $58  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - Appendix 4, Figure 6 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Public Safety General Fund (In millions) Organized Retail, Motor Vehicle, and Cargo Theft Prevention Grants (Public Safety Package) $85 Augmentation to California Violence Intervention and Prevention Program 66 Note: Includes augmentations above $50 million BSCC = Board of State and Community Corrections.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - Specifically, our forecast is about $24 billion below the Governor’s budget across 2022‑23 to 2024‑25. All else equal, this means the budget problem is likely to be higher at the time of the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - The increase consists of (1)  $ 137  m illion for 785 state staff and overtime equivalent positions, (2)  $ 22  m illion for 87  e xternal consultant equivalent positions, (3)  $3. 3  m illion for project permits, (4)  $ 2  m illion (one time) for construction arbitration costs, (5)  $1. 2  m illion (one time) for a Caltrans ’ facility needs
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/10

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Operating Surpluses of $3 Billion to $8  Billion. Figure 6 displays our estimates of the budget ’s condition over the outlook period. As the figure shows, although we estimate the budget has an available surplus of $31 billion to allocate in 2022 ‑23, the amount available on an ongoing basis —the operating surplus —is lower.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472