The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - Under our estimates, the state faces operating deficits throughout the multiyear window, meaning revenues would need to come in above our projections for the budget to be balanced. While the revenues required to balance the budget are optimistic, but plausible, in the budget window, they are improbable in the out ‑years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Our estimates of General Fund revenues and transfers for the “budget window ” —2016-17 through 2018-19 —are $2.6 billion above the administration ’s May 2018 revenue forecast. Figure 1 displays our General Fund revenue outlook through 2021-22.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3830

The 2019-20 May Revision: Sales Tax Exemptions for Diapers and Menstrual Products

May 12, 2019 - In contrast, the Legislature often adjusts its strategy for providing financial assistance to parents, so a four- or five-year window could be appropriate for the diaper exemption. Proposal Does Not Require Administration to Collect Data.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4040

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - During the phase ‑in period, the state also entered the dot ‑com recession. These two cost pressures absorbed the remaining flexibility in the state ’s UI tax system. As  shown in Figure  4 , the state began this period in Schedule C but quickly moved to Schedule F+, the highest tax schedule, where it has remained since.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - As revenues surged during the dot ‑com boom of the late 1990s, however, the state approached the limit. The state had excess revenues in 1999 ‑00, but because appropriations were under the limit in 2000 ‑01, additional Proposition  98 spending and taxpayer rebates were not required.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596