Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - These required deposits were to gradually increase from 1  p ercent of General Fund revenues in 2006 ‑ 07 t o 3  p ercent in 2008 ‑09 and every year thereafter. Proposition  58 allowed these deposits to be suspended by an executive order issued by the Governor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

Nov 14, 2018 - Proposition  58 required BSA deposits to increase from 1  percent of General Fund revenues in 2006 ‑07 to 3  percent in 2008 ‑09 and every year thereafter. Proposition  58 Required Deposits Until BSA Reached Certain Size.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3900

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - If these actions were all counted as policy choices, rather than baseline changes, the resulting budget problem would be $58 billion. We Estimate the Net Difference Between LAO and Administration Budget Problems Is About $10   Billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This year, for example, our outlook reflects our best estimates of the effects of H.R. 1: One Big Beautiful Bill Act on the state budget but does not make assumptions about future federal policy changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - Figure 1 Summary of Possible Remaining One ‑Time and Temporary Spending (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - First, in April, the Legislature passed an early action package that reduced the size of the budget problem by $17.3  billion (Chapter  9 of 2024 [AB  106, Gabriel]). Second, the administration reduced the total amount of new discretionary spending proposals by roughly $200  million (from $1.2  billion in January to about $1  billion).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829