The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - For example, we recommend the Legislature: Do Not Suspend the $3  Billion True Up Into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - There are many options for doing this, but given the volatility in the state ’s revenues, we think it is important to set aside much more funds in years when revenues are surging , rather than setting aside somewhat more in every year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Second, while our revenue estimates hedge against a market downturn, they do not reflect the revenue declines the state would experience in a recession. Third, the state has used most of its budget resiliency tools to address prior deficits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - When cost changes do not occur automatically under current policy, we classify them as either budget solutions or discretionary augmentations. Budget Package Addressed a Nearly $15   Billion Budget Problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - Although aligning revenue estimates might reduce the potential for confusion, doing so would risk creating bigger problems. In particular, it could provide a false sense of certainty about the state ’s fiscal position.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - The Legislature could do this by identifying issues, policies, and programs that have been key areas of attention in recent years. The affected departments likely have had less capacity for other responsibilities during that time.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - There are a handful of differences in our estimates, but these changes are small enough on net that they do not substantively change our assessment of the budget condition. Specifically, the administration has higher revenue estimates than our office, but these are mostly offset by their higher spending estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - While not all of these amounts represent lower state spending over the long term, they do result in savings today at a cost of forgone savings in the future. As a result, we count them as spending-related solutions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - When changes in costs do not occur automatically under current policy, we count them as budget solutions or augmentations. We take this approach in order to provide the Legislature visibility into the full scope of the administration ’s choices.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825