Federal Spending in California

Jan 18, 2017 - Federal Spending in California Federal Spending in California Methodology and Comparison to Other Estimates This post describes the method we used to produce the estimates in this blog series. This post also compares our estimates of federal expenditures to two studies that estimate federal funding to the states.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3531/7

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Federal Spending in California

Jan 18, 2017 - This method is consistent throughout the blog series except in Post 5, where we discuss all federal expenditures received by counties. Federal Medicaid funding for child welfare services, for example, is distributed from the federal government, to the state, and then to counties for the provision of services.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3531/1

Federal Spending in California

Jan 18, 2017 - In a blog post published in 2015 , we noted this ranking is mostly because California, with a younger population, receives significantly less in federal retirement benefits, such as Social Security. In FFY 2013-14 California received $2,740 per person in retirement benefits, compared to the national average of $3,474.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3531/2

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

An Update on California’s Cash Management Situation

Aug 31, 2020 - The preferred source for comparing budget projections to cash actuals are Agency cash reports, for example, as displayed on the LAO Economy and Taxes Blog .) Significant Federal Reimbursements for COVID-19 Direct Expenditures Anticipated in 2020-21.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4266

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028