The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As shown in Figure  1 , many signs of an overly exuberant stock market are present today: measures of whether stocks are “expensive ” are at historically high levels, investors are borrowing more to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than they have been in at least 70  years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Cap-and-Trade Extension: Issues for Legislative Oversight

Dec 12, 2017 - An allowance issued today can be purchased today and used to cover emissions in a future year —a design feature commonly known as banking. Since the annual cap on emissions becomes more stringent in later years, banking gives firms an incentive to obtain extra allowances in early years as a way to protect against the risk of higher prices in later years when allowances are more scarce.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3719

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History

Apr 11, 2019 - Specifically, we suggest that instead of using money today to repay low-interest budgetary debts (loans to the General Fund from special funds), the Legislature could achieve a higher return on its investment by making larger supplemental contributions toward its unfunded pension liabilities, which accrue at higher interest rates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4003

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - Additional Reporting Requirements for Veterans Homes Master Plan. The 2017 ‑ 18 b udget included language that requires CalVet to develop a systemwide master plan for the veterans homes by July 1, 2019.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/12

Fiscal Outlook Addendum: CalPERS

Nov 18, 2015 - By rejecting the faster shift to a 6.5 percent discount rate, the CalPERS action mitigates some of the near-term budget risk for retirement funding we discuss in today 's Fiscal Outlook . As we state in the Fiscal Outlook (p. 44 of the pdf version), the plan adopted today by the CalPERS board "would not necessarily increase costs above our assumptions between now and 2019-20 " because it changes the system 's discount rates so gradually.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3308

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - The underlying budget dynamics today are particularly challenging for three reasons. First, revenues have not caught up with expenditures. Second, under our estimates, expenditure growth exceeds estimated revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2019-20 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 14, 2019 - The Legislature, however, might consider more targeted initiatives linked with specific goals. For example, it could link any one ‑time workforce funding to helping with a transition to a new child care reimbursement rate system and/or higher minimum program standards.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3916

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The federal administration currently is renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, an agreement that eliminates many barriers to the exchange of goods among the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. These negotiations are ongoing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - We begin by reviewing the evolution of the budget condition, detailing how the outlook deteriorated from roughly balanced in January to a deficit today. Then, we summarize the proposals the Governor puts forward to address the budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044