California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - In this context, the two main parts of the Arellano and Bonhomme (2017) model are (1)  a set of equations that predict the conditional quantiles of the wage distribution, and (2)  an equation that predicts whether each worker responds to the survey ’s wage questions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4

The 2022-23 Budget: Supply Chain and Port Infrastructure Proposals

Feb 15, 2022 - Short ‑Term vs. Long ‑Term Strategies. The  current supply chain disruptions are the result of both short ‑term issues, such as greater consumer demand, as well as long ‑term issues, such as the capacity and resilience of the goods movement system.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4540

The Property Tax Inheritance Exclusion

Oct 9, 2017 - Consequently, monthly ownership costs for these homeowners were around $1,000 less than the typical homeowner ($1,650 vs. $670). Because most inherited homes have been owned for decades, children typically are receiving a property with lower ownership costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3706

Updating the California Necessities Index

Aug 14, 2025 - While future data availability cannot be fully predicted, certain statistics are statistically more reliable than others and ar e thus more likely to be available in the future. Options Considered Based on the criteria discussed above, we consider the following options for replacing the CNI.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5065

Evaluation of a Tax Exemption for Zero-Emission Buses

Apr 15, 2024 - Innovative Clean Transit (ICT) Regulation Conventional Buses vs. ZEBs. The ZEB exemption, the ICT regulation, and various other policies make a distinction between conventional buses and ZEBs. Conventional buses burn diesel, compressed natural gas, or other fuels that emit greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other air pollutants.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4890

The 2024-25 Budget: Governor's Office of Business and Economic Development

Feb 20, 2024 - We estimate the Governor ’s budget predicts the state ’s 2024-25 budget will need to address a $58 billion deficit . In December, our office predicted a somewhat large deficit of $68 billion . Since then, recent data has continued to point to the budget problem being larger than the Governor’s budget assumes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4846

California’s First Film Tax Credit Program

Sep 29, 2016 - For example, the model predicts that one out of every two independent feature films that applied for a film tax credit would have likely been made in California regardless of whether or not they received a credit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3502

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - As we discussed in November, accurately predicting the future path of the economy is not possible. The consensus scenario we use is only one possible path for the U.S. and California economies. Key Issues for the Future Trajectory of the State ’s Economy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2020-21 May Revision: Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 May Revision

May 20, 2020 - Revenues From NOL Suspensions and Credit Limits Would Be Difficult to Predict. We have found that predicting the revenue effects of corporation tax changes accurately is challenging. Changes to NOLs and credits are particularly challenging because they are concentrated with a relatively small number of corporations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4238

Taxation of Sugary Drinks

Nov 26, 2018 - Key Trade ‑Off: Main Policy Goal vs. Other Health Effects. The potential exclusion of 100  p ercent juice illustrates a general trade ‑off in the design of sugary drink taxes. Some sugary drinks contain beneficial nutrients.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3903