California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - The state links rates for license –exempt providers to a percentage of the rates for family child care homes accepting vouchers. The budget provides $14  million to increase license –exempt rates from 65  percent to 70  percent of the family child care home rates starting January 1, 2017.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/4

Fiscal Outlook: Medi-Cal

Nov 15, 2017 - Without federal reauthorization of CHIP funding, the state would likely exhaust its remaining unspent federal funds for CHIP by the end of 2017. Under the ACA MOE requirement, which under current federal law continues until September 30, 2019, California would likely have to maintain its CHIP eligibility levels and receive its traditional Medicaid FMAP of 50  percent to cover these children.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3715

Federal Spending in California

Jan 18, 2017 - Individuals aged 65 and above represent an average of 22 percent of the total population of each of these counties — compared to a statewide average of roughly 15 percent. Other Counties With High Per-Person Federal Expenditures.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3531/6

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - However, our Fiscal Outlook revenue forecast, shown in Figure  2 , reflects a smaller, temporary upgrade which reverses beginning in 2026 ‑ 27 —resulting in 2026 ‑27 revenues being in line with budget act estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Second, the dot ‑com bust involved much more significant losses in the stock market, which affect capital gains revenues. General Fund Revenue Volatility Has Likely Increased Since Last Recession. Since the Great Recession ended, changes in the state ’s policies and economy have likely increased the volatility of General Fund revenue.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - Appendix 4, Figure 5 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Other General Fund (In millions) Broadband infrastructure —last ‑mile projects $253 Broadband infrastructure —Broadband Loan Loss Reserve Fund 175 Establish new office of public outreach 65 Note: Includes augmentations above $50 million CPUC = California Public Utilities Commission and OPR = Office of Planning and Research.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2017-18 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 18, 2017 - Under the ACA, California ’s CHIP FMAP increased from 65  percent to 88  percent. The ability of California to draw down federal CHIP funds at this higher FMAP, however, is dependent on Congress ’ decision regarding the appropriation of funding for CHIP beyond FFY 2016 ‑17, as Congress has only appropriated funding for CHIP through FFY 2016 ‑17.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3694/6

The 2017-18 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 18, 2017 - Counties will need to find other revenue sources —likely their county general funds —to cover these amounts. The DOF estimates that these costs will be less than $200  million in 2017 ‑18 and will increase in future years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3694/8