The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As shown in Figure  1 , many signs of an overly exuberant stock market are present today: measures of whether stocks are “expensive ” are at historically high levels, investors are borrowing more to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than they have been in at least 70  years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - For retiree health, these increases reflect rising health premiums and the fact that state retirees are living longer in retirement. In ‑Home Supportive Services (IHSS). The IHSS program accounts for about 3  p ercent of General Fund costs today, but over the outlook period is responsible for 10  p ercent of total growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

The 2020-21 Budget: California's Spring Fiscal Outlook

May 8, 2020 - Eliminate Cost ‑of ‑Living Adjustments (COLAs). Our estimates of the budget problem assume the state provides inflation ‑related cost increases in order to maintain current service levels, although those increases are not necessarily required under current law or policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4228

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - As we discuss later in this brief, the May Revision maintains a cost ‑of ‑living adjustment (COLA) and other spending increases for schools and community colleges despite the drop in funding. Baseline Spending Higher by $12   Billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

Fiscal Outlook Addendum: CalPERS

Nov 18, 2015 - By rejecting the faster shift to a 6.5 percent discount rate, the CalPERS action mitigates some of the near-term budget risk for retirement funding we discuss in today 's Fiscal Outlook . As we state in the Fiscal Outlook (p. 44 of the pdf version), the plan adopted today by the CalPERS board "would not necessarily increase costs above our assumptions between now and 2019-20 " because it changes the system 's discount rates so gradually.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3308

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - These challenges would not be short-lived either. After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - By pulling back substantially on one-time and temporary spending, as well as making some ongoing reductions, the Governor ’s May Revision shrinks the state ’s projected deficits from around $30  billion (our December 2023 estimates) to an average of less than $10  billion (our estimates today).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - Covering Statutory Cost ‑of ‑Living Adjustment Estimated to Cost $2.3   Billion. When the minimum guarantee is growing, the state typically provides a statutory cost ‑of ‑living adjustment (COLA) for certain school and community college programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3897

An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History

Apr 11, 2019 - Specifically, we suggest that instead of using money today to repay low-interest budgetary debts (loans to the General Fund from special funds), the Legislature could achieve a higher return on its investment by making larger supplemental contributions toward its unfunded pension liabilities, which accrue at higher interest rates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4003