A Long-Term Outlook: Disability Among California’s Seniors

Nov 28, 2016 - Seniors turning 65 between 2015 and 2019 who have greater than a high school education spend fewer years on average with one or more ADL limitations than seniors with a high school degree or GED credential and seniors with less than a high school education (4.2 years vs. 4.8 years and 5.8  years, respectively).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3509

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As we have noted in previous publications , predicting pharmacy spending is inherently uncertain given the dynamic nature of the prescription drug market. Many of the pharmacy‑related budget solutions are subject to this uncertainty.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5092

The 2024-25 Budget: The MCO Tax Package at May Revision

May 22, 2024 - To the extent the Legislature still wishes to pursue certain augmentations, we recommend it (1)  focus on augmentations that are relatively simple to implement and have relatively predictable positive effects on access to quality health care, (2)  focus on rates that are relatively low, and (3)  keep in mind the state ’s budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4905

Climate Change Impacts Across California - Crosscutting Issues

Apr 5, 2022 - A recent scientific  study  by United States Geological Survey researchers predicted that under scenarios of three feet to six feet of sea‑level rise, up to two‑thirds of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4575

The MCO Tax: A Flat Versus Tiered Structure

Jul 20, 2015 - Thus, compared to a flat tax, a tiered tax is significantly less predictable as a revenue source —as well as more complicated to administer —due to its competitive effects on the MCO market and the potential need to revise the tax tiers and seek federal approval in response to changes in the distribution of MCO enrollment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3292

The 2019-20 Budget: Undoing California’s Outstanding Budgetary Deferrals

Mar 26, 2019 - The Legislature could consider transitioning Medi-Cal back to an accrual budget as a way to increase legislative oversight and improve the predictability of the Medi-Cal budget. Doing so would match budgeted costs to when services are delivered, more closely align Medi-Cal ’s budget with the trends in underlying program dynamics, smooth year-to-year changes in the Medi-Cal budget, and could make the budget more predictable.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3988

The 2019-20 Budget: Analysis of the Governor’s Mental Health Workforce Proposal

May 9, 2019 - The 2019-20 Budget: Analysis of the Governor’s Mental Health Workforce Proposal Mixed Evidence of Statewide Mental Health Workforce Shortages Projections From Academic Researchers Predict the State Could Face a Shortage of Mental Health Professionals.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4031

The 2023-24 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - Factors that tend to predict future inflation suggest there is a considerable risk inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time. Should inflation continue to be higher than historical levels, General Fund spending in Medi ‑Cal could be higher than we project.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4649

The 2022-23 Budget: Analysis of the Medi-Cal Budget

Feb 9, 2022 - Changes in the timing of payments occur regularly and are difficult to predict. Additionally, implementing new Medi ‑Cal programs and policy changes often occurs more slowly than the budget anticipates, which can result in shifts of funding to subsequent years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4522

The 2019-20 Budget: Analysis of the Medi-Cal Budget

Feb 13, 2019 - However, several features of the Medi ‑Cal program make its budget extremely complex, difficult for external stakeholders to track, and challenging to predict. In this section, we describe recent challenges in accurately projecting Medi ‑Cal expenditures and the major underlying sources of budgeting uncertainty.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3935