California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - The administration currently estimates a very small “true down ” to the BSA in 2017 ‑18, although that may change at the time of the May Revision. (We believe there is significant upside to the administration ’s 2017 ‑ 18 r evenue estimates, which would result in a required true up deposit.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Governor’s Budget Roughly Balanced on Higher Revenues In November, We Anticipated the State Faced an $18   Billion Deficit. In our November Fiscal Outlook report, we estimated that the state faced an $18  billion budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2017-18 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 18, 2017 - The 2017-18 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version) Major Features of the 2017-18 Spending Plan The major features of the 2017 ‑18 budget package are shown in Figure  4 and briefly described below.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3694/1

Fiscal Outlook: Medi-Cal

Nov 15, 2017 - Lower General Fund Spending in Medi-Cal in 2017 ‑18 Relative to 2017 ‑18 Budget Act . In 2017 ‑18, we estimate General Fund Medi-Cal spending to be $18.9  billion. This estimate is around $625  million lower than what was assumed in the 2017 ‑18 Budget Act .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3715