Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2026-27 Budget: CDTFA’s Cannabis and Tobacco Programs

Feb 23, 2026 - From 2021 ‑22 to 2024 ‑25, tobacco tax revenues dropped 14  percent per year —much faster than the 2  percent historical average. Potential explanations for this decline include: A drop in actual tobacco consumption —the flavor ban ’s intended outcome.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5132

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 16, 2025 - The 2025-26 budget package assumes ongoing savings of $489.8  million ($182.3  million General Fund) (see Attachment 3 of the May 14, 2025 DOF letter) resulting from the permanent elimination of 6,002 vacant positions beginning in 2025-26 (see Attachment 4 of the May 14, 2025 DOF letter).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5081

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - Similarly, had the state entered the pandemic with a similar reserve target ($14 billion in that case), the total federal loan would have reached $9 billion, rather than $20 billion. Total UI Tax Rate Would Be 1.9   Percent Under Current Conditions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - First, the Governor proposes to no longer count under the state limit roughly $14  billion of state funding that cannot be absorbed under school district limits. (This is our estimate; the administration declined to provide us its estimate.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596

Annual Report on Tax Exemptions for Medicinal Cannabis

Jun 14, 2023 - Annual Report on Tax Exemptions for Medicinal Cannabis June 14, 2023 Annual Report on Tax Exemptions for Medicinal Cannabis Statutory Data Reporting Requirement. Chapter  837 of 2019 (SB  34, Wiener) established new tax exemptions for donations of medicinal cannabis.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4777

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - The operating deficits under our forecast are slightly larger —ranging from $14  billion to $20   billion —compared to those under the administration ’s forecast —ranging from $14  billion to $17  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

A Key Interaction Between Sales Taxes and Other Taxes on Cannabis Retailers

Dec 17, 2019 - We estimate that the average cumulative local tax rate over the whole supply chain—including local business taxes—is roughly equivalent to a 14 percent tax on retail sales. Of this 14 percent total, we estimate that 7 percent (roughly one half) consists of taxes specifically on retail sales.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4124