California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Both our office and the administration expect the state to face multiyear deficits, with estimates ranging from $20  billion to $35  billion annually. These deficits are concerning for three reasons.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

CalFacts 2024 [Publication Details]

Dec 2, 2024 - CalFacts presents a wide range of facts and trends about the state's economy, finances, and programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4942

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Both our office and the Department of Finance (DOF) project operating deficits ranging from $10  billion to $20  billion over the multiyear period. These shortfalls represent future budget problems that would require additional budget-balancing decisions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - To this end, in recent years, we have shifted away from emphasizing point forecasts in favor of providing a plausible revenue range. Our approach does not preclude the Legislature from using our forecast to adopt a specific revenue estimate, however.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Similar to the administration, we project the state faces modest operating deficits (budget problems) over the multiyear period —ranging from a very small deficit in 2025 ‑26 to larger ones in the out-years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - According to the administration, this growth is largely due to higher ‑than ‑anticipated per ‑enrollee costs, which reflects a range of factors like greater utilization of services, increased prices for medical care, and expanded use of high ‑cost specialty drugs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - We understand that building a reserve of this size —even if achieved over three decades —is a dramatic increase and well outside the range of savings targets that have been contemplated by policymakers to date.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - These higher costs are more than offset by a range of other areas where the administration’s cost estimates are lower. For example, constitutionally required debt payments are $1.1 billion lower under the administration’s estimates and the administration scores a higher entering fund balance—largely due to over $1 billion in additional revenue accruals—in 2023‑24.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - The operating deficits under our forecast are slightly larger —ranging from $14  billion to $20   billion —compared to those under the administration ’s forecast —ranging from $14  billion to $17  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772