California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Figure 2 LAO May 2018 Economic Growth Scenario a Percent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated 2017
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan—Debt Liabilities

Oct 17, 2019 - Special Fund Loans Throughout the 2000s, particularly in response to the dot-com bust and Great Recession, the state loaned amounts to the General Fund from other state accounts, particularly special funds to address General Fund budget problems.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4106

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - That said, both the Legislature and voters have indicated, through various policies enacted over the last decade, that their preference is to address these risks not by reforming the revenue structure, but by building reserves.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 5, 2020 - As a condition of receiving the funding, counties must show that they are in com pliance with state and federal public health requirements. Budget Provides $600   Million for Project Homekey and Related Services.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4263