Assessing California’s Climate Policies—Cap-and-Trade Reauthorization

May 7, 2025 - If Allowance Prices Were to Reach the Price Ceiling, Consumer Impacts Would Be Much Larger. Some recent modeling suggests that reauthorization likely will put upward pressure on prices and potentially lead to them reaching the price ceiling over the next several years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5042

The 2026-27 Budget: Cap-and-Invest Expenditure Plan

Feb 10, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: Cap-and-Invest Expenditure Plan $4,066 $4,221 a Revenue estimates assume allowances will sell at the same average premium above the price floor as has been the case for the last four quarters with fully subscribed auctions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5114

The 2026-27 Budget: Governor’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Tax Credit Proposal

Feb 24, 2026 - The total value of this stack depends on various factors such as LCFS and RFS credit prices, as well as the feedstocks used, but cumulatively could total a  couple dollars per gallon for SAF producers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5139

Overview of New Updates to the Cap-and-Invest Program

Dec 9, 2025 - If CARB were to set a relatively low ceiling price, it would help limit the costs of the program on businesses and households —improving affordability —but would also increase the likelihood that prices reach the ceiling.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5097

The 2026-27 Budget: Proposed Zero-Emission Vehicle Incentive

Feb 24, 2026 - Moreover, given the opaque nature of vehicle pricing, we expect that ensuring that incentives are passed on to consumers, rather than retained (at least to some degree) by manufacturers or vehicle dealers, will be difficult.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5140

Cap-and-Invest: November 2025 Auction Update and 2026-27 Budget Context

Dec 9, 2025 - Both the allowance prices and number of allowances sold were similar across the two auctions. (In both auctions, all the state-owned allowances offered for sale were purchased.) …Continuing to Come in Slightly Below 2025-26 Budget Act Assumptions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5096

California’s Cap-and-Trade Program: Frequently Asked Questions

Oct 24, 2023 - CARB sets a “floor price ” (minimum price) for which an allowance can be sold, but historically allowances frequently have sold above that price due to buyer interest. For example, in the August 2023 auction, CARB set the per-allowance floor price at $22.21 but allowances ultimately sold for $35.22 each.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4811

The 2025-26 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan

Feb 12, 2025 - However, the past two auctions have reflected some weakening in allowance prices compared to the auctions that took place during the prior year. Specifically, DOF projected 2024 ‑25 auction prices of about $38  per allowance, but actual prices at the first two quarterly auctions of the fiscal year were roughly $31.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4960

The 2022-23 Budget: Fuel Price and Other Fiscal Relief Options

May 12, 2022 - The 2022-23 Budget: Fuel Price and Other Fiscal Relief Options The 2022-23 Budget Fuel Price and Other Fiscal Relief Options Summary. In response to increasing prices across the economy —particularly fuel prices —the Legislature is considering a number of policies for providing fiscal relief to Californians.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4597

Cap-And-Trade Auction Update and GGRF Projections

Dec 6, 2021 - These prices would result in GGRF revenues totaling $3.7  billion in 2021 ‑22 and $2.7  billion in 2022 ‑23. Continued Price Growth. Under this scenario, prices increase to $40 in 2022 and $43 in 2023.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4480