The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As shown in Figure  1 , many signs of an overly exuberant stock market are present today: measures of whether stocks are “expensive ” are at historically high levels, investors are borrowing more to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than they have been in at least 70  years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2019-20 May Revision: Sales Tax Exemptions for Diapers and Menstrual Products

May 12, 2019 - In the May Revision, the Governor proposes a new sales tax exemption for tampons, sanitary napkins, menstrual cups, and menstrual sponges. The administration estimates that the forgone revenue from this exemption will be $5.5  million General Fund ($12  million total) in 2019 ‑20, $11  million General Fund ($24  million total) in 2020 ‑21, and $5.5  million General Fund ($12  million total) in 2021 ‑22.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4040

Tempered Expectations

Dec 9, 2019 - Furthermore, in the real world, of course, the risk of a recession cannot be assumed away. Although the impending threat of a recession has seemed to wax and wane throughout 2019, we suspect that downside risk to the economy is now elevated compared with prior years’ outlooks.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4122

The 2020-21 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2019 - We find that the state now is in good shape to weather a recession typical of the post ‑World War II era. This shows the significant progress California has made in preparing for a downturn. It does not mean, however, that the state is prepared to weather any possible recession.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4111

Fiscal Outlook Addendum: CalPERS

Nov 18, 2015 - By rejecting the faster shift to a 6.5 percent discount rate, the CalPERS action mitigates some of the near-term budget risk for retirement funding we discuss in today 's Fiscal Outlook . As we state in the Fiscal Outlook (p. 44 of the pdf version), the plan adopted today by the CalPERS board "would not necessarily increase costs above our assumptions between now and 2019-20 " because it changes the system 's discount rates so gradually.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3308

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - While not all of these amounts represent lower state spending over the long term, they do result in savings today at a cost in the future. As a result, we count them as spending‑related solutions. We estimate the proposed budget includes about $3 billion in reversions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2017-18 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 18, 2017 - As designed, state funding for the program decreases over the three ‑year period, as local match requirements increase. In 2015 ‑16 and 2016 ‑17, the state provided $400  million and $300  million, respectively, for the program.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3694/3

The 2020-21 Budget: Structuring the Budget

Feb 10, 2020 - While we conduct this exercise based on what we know today —and our knowledge of the world and the future is limited —it is nonetheless integral to these decisions. Subscribe | California State Legislature | Online Voter Registration | Privacy Policy | Accessibility Legislative Analyst's Office | The California Legislature's Nonpartisan Fiscal and Policy Advisor 925 L Street, Suite 1000 Sacramento, CA 95814 | (916) 445-4656
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4150

An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History

Apr 11, 2019 - Because the MCO tax package leverages federal Medicaid matching funds, the Governor ’s nonproposal in this area has the effect of leaving money on the table. Therefore, we think the Legislature should strongly consider extending the MCO tax package even in the absence of a proposal to do so from the Governor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4003