California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - For example, even after adjusting for inflation, anticipated revenues for 2023‑24 remain about 20 percent higher than before the pandemic. Moreover, the Governor’s proposed spending level—as a share of the economy shown in Figure 3—remains above peaks from the early and mid‑2000s.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Figure  3 shows estimates of tax revenue losses associated with each of the last three recessions: the recession of the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession in the early 2000s, and the financial crisis and Great Recession beginning in 2008.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - Under the 2022 ‑23 Budget Act assumptions, the state would have ended 2023 ‑24 with a deficit of nearly $3  billion in 2023 ‑24. Revenue losses compound this already negative starting point. Revenues Losses Add to Deficit by $41   Billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646

The 2023-24 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Nov 8, 2023 - Figure 3
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4814

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - Funding would be reduced at the 2023 ‑24 state marginal cost rates of $11,640 per UC student and $10,070 per CSU student. Provisional language also sets enrollment expectations for the universities for each of the next few years, with UC expected to grow 1.4  percent annually and CSU expected to grow 3  percent  annually.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2023 - Under these estimates and assumptions, the state would end 2023 ‑24 with $3.8  billion in the SFEU. Figure 4
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4662

The 2024-25 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 2, 2024 - The budget also provides $3  million on a one-time basis in 2024-25 from various funds to support five entities —the Structural Pest Control Board. California Architects Board, Landscape Architects Technical Committee; Cemetery and Funeral Bureau;; and the Bureau of Household Goods and Services —to continue implementation and support of new IT systems to support these entities ’ regulatory activities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4934