California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Regardless of the revenue assumption used in the 2026-27 budget, both our office and the Governor ’s Department of Finance (DOF) agree that the state faces large structural deficits. Although the strong current-year tax collections mask it, there are at least two notable indications of an underlying fiscal problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 1, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only. The LAO is unable to guarantee the accuracy of this translation and is therefore not liable for any inaccurate information resulting from the translation application tool.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5107

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Under those projections, the state faces operating deficits of $9 billion in 2024‑25, $9 billion in 2025‑26, and $4 billion in 2026‑27. Because of the state’s constitutional spending requirements, revenues would need to be higher by more than these amounts for the state to be able to afford the spending level currently proposed.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Under the first statute, the trigger would occur if the Director of Finance projects the SFEU to exceed about 4  p ercent of General Fund revenues (currently, about $5. 4  b illion) in the prior and current year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - After 2026‑27, these proposals would add about $200 million in ongoing spending. Some of the largest spending augmentations proposed for the budget window include: (1) $76 million for utility replacement and site improvements at Exposition Park, (2) $67 million to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection for fixed‑wing aircraft pilot and mechanics contract
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - Between 2023 ‑24 and 2026 ‑27, HHS programs grow at an average annual rate of 5.5  percent under our projections, compared to 3.4  percent under the administration ’s estimates. Remaining programs —including employee compensation, pensions, and higher education —are responsible for the remaining $4  billion in difference in that year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - The estimate of the requirement for 2024 ‑25 is up nearly $4.7  billion (4  percent) from the June 2024 level, but the budget appropriates just over $2.7  billion in additional funding for that year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Specifically, our estimates of spending (excluding spending on schools and community colleges) are about $5  billion lower in 2025 ‑26, $4  billion lower in 2026 ‑27, and $3  billion lower in 2027 ‑28.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907