California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California. California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk January 23, 2026 Tweet Gabriel PetekLegislative Analyst History suggests that fiscal risks can build during times when they are easiest to ignore.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk [Publication Details]

Jan 23, 2026 - California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Instead, our forecast includes income tax collections that are somewhat weaker than suggested by cash trends, but still tens of billions of dollars above where they would be if stocks actually drop significantly.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - This budget problem was larger than the one anticipated by the administration in June, despite strong trends in income tax collections in the intervening months. There were two main reasons we anticipated the deficit to grow.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

CalFacts 2024 [Publication Details]

Dec 2, 2024 - CalFacts presents a wide range of facts and trends about the state's economy, finances, and programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4942

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Certain programs are more susceptible to external factors like federal policy changes, demographic shifts, or economic trends. In some cases, programs are designed intentionally to respond to these factors.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Although inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, appears to be trending down from the recent peak of 9.1  percent in June 2022, as of March, it remained 5  percent, or 2.5 times the Federal Reserve ’s (the Fed ’s) target.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Alongside these downbeat trends, a bright spot has emerged: strong growth in total pay to California workers. Total pay grew at a well above ‑average rate in the first half of 2024. The first quarter was especially strong, with 17  percent annualized growth in total pay, among the sharpest quarterly growth rates on record.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Each of these scenarios draws on data from the past —like long ‑term growth rates and the stability and the persistence of past trends —to make predictions about the future. However, each individual scenario is also unique.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - Not long after, however, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation trends and the Fed ’s orientation to them began to reverse. Once it emerged, inflation accelerated throughout 2021 and has remained elevated this year with as yet indeterminate signs of abating.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653